Exploration of Urban Emission Mitigation Pathway under the Carbon Neutrality Target: A Case Study of Beijing, China

Exploring the urban carbon neutrality pathway is crucial to overall achievement of net-zero emissions target in China. Therefore, taking Beijing as a case study, this paper firstly analyzes CO2 emission drivers by combining Stochastic Impacts Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) partial least squares (PLS) methods. Subsequently, based optimized extreme learning machine (ELM) model, projects during 2021–2060 under different scenarios. The results show that controlling total energy consumption increasing proportion non-fossil electrification level should be key measures implement reduction Beijing. Particularly, increased 65% 73%, respectively, 2060. In addition, more stringent policies need implemented achieve target. Under H−EPS scenario, Beijing’s peaked 2010 will reduced cumulative 109 MtCO2 2021–2060. Along with executing mitigation policies, actively increase sinks develop capture, utilization, storage (CCUS) technology. Especially after 2040, produced CCUS technology no less than 20 per year.